Will China Outgrow the U.S.? How the 2024 Election Could Shape the Global Economic Landscape

Neve Walker

Communication Liason

For years China’s economy has been a hot topic. Economists and policymakers have long debated whether China’s rapidly growing economy can surpass the United States. As we look toward the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the two economic strategies of the candidates could have profound effects on the U.S.-China economic rivalry. 

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offer distinct approaches to the economy that could shape how the U.S. will compete in the global economy. Because of this, one question remains: Can China’s economy truly outgrow the U.S., and what will occur if it does?

Since their economic reforms of the 20th century, China’s GDP growth has outpaced the U.S. According to Global Times. China’s actual GDP growth in 2023 outpaced the U.S. by 2.7 percent and 1.1 percent higher in 2022. Because of this, even though the United States’ GDP is higher than China, the gap in economic size is narrowing.  

Many argue that China has already surpassed the United States. According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, by measuring purchasing power parity, China’s economy surpassed the U.S.’s in 2014 and is around 25 percent larger. According to the International Monetary Fund project by 2028, China’s economy will be nearly 40 percent larger. Comparing nominal GDP, the U.S. remains ahead. For GDP growth, China’s investment in technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure development has been key for its economic growth. 

China’s political strategy contrasts the U.S political system. With elections occurring every two years, and most Congressional positions being under 6 years there is a need to form short-term solutions because our politicians are more worried about getting reelected than providing long-term solutions. China does not have this problem as they have one-party system and hold elections every five years, meaning they are able to come up with long-term economic solutions, focusing on the next 20 years rather than the next two. 

An example of this is the Made in China 2025 initiative. Institute of Security and Development Policy writes that it aims to transform China from a previously dependent, low-cost, manufacturing-based economy into a global leader in high-tech industries by 2025. This plan focuses on 10 sectors including robotics, aerospace, clean energy vehicles, and biomedicine. The goal is to reduce dependency on foreign technologies and enhance China’s ability to produce these goods domestically.

 The 2024 election could serve as a critical point in the direction of the U.S. approach to China’s economic rise. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offer two fundamentally different approaches to counter China, each carrying significant implications for the global economy. 

During his presidency, Trump took a hard stance against China. Trump’s return to office would likelyfocus on tariffs and the reduction of American reliance on Chinese goods. In his first term, he imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese imports to reduce the trade deficit, brining manufacturing back to the U.S., and counter what he viewed as unfair trade practices.This aggressive approach hurt American businesses who were reliant on Chinese goods, leading to higher costs for American consumers. A second Trump administration would likely lead to a double down on this strategy, potentially destabilizing the technology industry. Relying less on China, although hurting us in the short run, will create a more self-reliant U.S. economy. Time will tell if these policies slow down China’s economic growth or force them to accelerate their policies and initiatives to push towards technological and economic self-sufficiency. 

On the other hand, Harris is likely to take a more measured approach. While she would continue to hold China responsible on issues like trade imbalances and intellectual property theft, her focus would involve strengthening alliances with other nations rather than isolationist policies like Trump. Rather than unilateral tariffs and trade wars, Harris’ administration would most likely work through institutions like the World Trade Organization and build coalitions with the EU and Pacific allies. Harris would also invest heavily in U.S. industries that are critical to competing with China, like technology, infrastructure, and clean energy. This strategy could avoid immediate economic fallout of a trade war, while setting the U.S. up for long-term economic resilience. 

Ultimately, whether China’s economy can outgrow the U.S. is not just a matter of comparing GDP numbers; it is a question of the effectiveness of political systems, global alliances, and long-term strategies. While China’s leaders plan decades into the future, the U.S. remains dynamic and innovation-driven, focusing on short-term problems which inadvertently brings uncertainty to the long-term economy. It is not just about who wins in the next U.S. election, but which party continues to hold the White House and push their agenda.

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