FOCUS on Tension Between China and Myanmar

FOCUS on Tension Between China and Myanmar

Christian Montañez

Staff Writer

Since February 2021, Myanmar has transformed from a young country with hopes of democratic reforms to a nation devastated by ethnopolitical civil war. In the aftermath of the 2020 elections, which saw the National League for Democracy (NLD) win the parliamentary majority over the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a political party known for supporting the military, or Tatmadaw, a coup ensued. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the Tatmadaw launched a coup d’état which has led to the suspension of the NLD parliament, arrests of opposing political leaders, and violent crackdowns on those who dare to resist the military junta. In the three years that the junta have usurped power, they have received immense international backlash from Western nations over human rights abuses and caused the deaths of tens of thousands, yet with all this violence the junta have not been able to exert complete control.

Although this situation has received international attention, one country in particular is keeping a close eye over Myanmar more than all, the People’s Republic of China. Despite being a global economic and military superpower, the outcome of Myanmar’s precarious future is of vital importance to Chinese interests. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese investment into Myanmar has ballooned, funding numerous projects including the Kyaukphyu Economic Zone and a deep-sea port in Rakhine according to Geopolitical Monitor. Myanmar’s location finds it with access to key trade lanes within the Bengal Bay, which are of the utmost priority to a China that is seeking to expand its power and influence. As reported by The Diplomat, China is seeking to complete the construction of The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is a component of the BRI that would allow them to reduce reliance on trade routes through the Malacca Straits and create infrastructure such as pipelines. In turn, China would be able to not only diversify its Southeast Asian trade, but also make it more expedient and obtain energy security as well. While CMEC does appear to be an easy decision for China, its current progress has been halted due Myanmar’s lack of consolidated government leadership and violence caused by the civil war. Without CMEC, China will have to continue to rely on the Malacca Strait trade routes for goods and energy, which presents a strategic weakness that rivals such as India and the United States could exploit in the near future. Additionally, the United States Institute of Peace writes that China face security issues such as cybercrime syndicates and the deaths of Chinese nationals at the hands of armed ethnic groups. 

With Chinese interests at risk due to the internal strife within Myanmar, it has begun to slowly intervene within the conflict and domestic political scene. In December 2023 and January 2024, China negotiated temporary ceasefires between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armies, serving as a negotiator according to Al Jazeera. Furthermore, Geopolitical Monitor highlights that China has called for a restored effort for 2025 elections. Even though this initially seems like a move in support of democracy, upon further examination the only major parties that are eligible for election are those that support the junta, as pro-democracy and Western thinking political leaders such as the National Unity Government (NUG) have been forced into exile or have been arrested. Evidently, China is using its political strength in Southeast Asia to influence Myanmar’s future, as it must protect its investments while also keeping the West out of its backyard.

By unilaterally inserting itself into the internal affairs of Myanmar, China has attempted to cement its position as the sole international lead to influence the embattled nation. As quoted in Voice of America, China is warning the international community that “external influence” will not be tolerated, especially from countries outside of the region. This warning comes as the NUG has opened a liaison office within Washington DC, a move that certainly worries Beijing. If China can push the U.S. out of Myanmar, not only will chances of democracy take a serious blow, but U.S. influence in the region could as well. While the U.S. will still be able to maintain relationships with allies such as the Philippines and Japan, developing countries may recognize Chinese dominance in Myanmar as a sign of the next regional hegemony and choose to side with China instead. Furthermore, by using its leadership to stabilize Myanmar, China would display an immense amount of control over Southeast Asia and gain a massive trade advantage which it could then turn into further leverage against India, arguably its biggest rival in Asia. Clearly, Myanmar’s political turmoil and its potential solutions are more than what meets the eye.

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