Framework for Peace in the Caucasus: Developments for Peace between Azerbaijan & Armenia
Elijah Novak
Staff Writer
On August 8 in Washington, DC, United States President Donald Trump invited Azerbaijan’s President Ilhan Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan to sign a framework for a peace deal between the two nations who have historically been in conflict. This agreement signifies a move in the direction of a possibility for a complete peace settlement between the two states. President Ilhan Aliyev stated at a press conference after the signing, “There should be no doubt and no suspicions that any of the sides would step back. If any of us, Prime Minister Pashinyan or myself, had in mind to step back, we would not have come here,” reported Caspian Policy Center.
The framework provided displays critical steps for peace between the two nations. A critical feature is the agreement upon the nation’s border established in the 1991 Alma-Alta Agreement. This is being assisted by the creation of a delimitation & demarcation committee to ensure that the border is clear and exact. In addition to this, both states have agreed to the establishment of diplomatic relations. This would mark the first formal bilateral ties since their independence from the USSR. The driving force behind this agreement is a desire by both nations to benefit from the economic prosperity that open transit and economic unity would present. Talks about the reopening of a Soviet-Era rail line that connects the two nations would provide new opportunities both economically and politically. In particular, Azerbaijan, could reduce cost and time through a reopening of transport routes between its mainland and exclave Nakhichevan.
As the war in Ukraine continues, global trade has moved away from transport routes through Russia’s Northern Corridor, and towards opportunities in the Middle Corridor (Caucasus & Central Asia), reports CPC. In addition, humanitarian commitments and border security were other critical factors agreed to in the agreement. Yet, the agreement is not a settlement, and most notably, some of the most difficult steps call for a complete change in public opinion. Within the agreement made in Washington is the renunciation of territorial claims. Although signed by the Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian constitution includes a territorial claim to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region won by Azerbaijan in a conflict predating each nation’s independence saw 100,000 Armenians expelled from their homes. To refute such a claim would require a constitutional referendum and a public vote. For many Armenians, the conflict between the two, and its reopening in 2020, still remain prominent in the public memory, reports Foreign Policy.
One of the most critical aspects of the agreement is the United States’ role in brokering it. Accepting the mediator position, the United State is taking on a role that has been traditionally held by Russia. One aspect of the agreement, known as “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), is an embracing of America’s role as a mediator for world conflicts. Russia’s limited involvement may display that a shift in power dominance is occurring in territory once dominated by Russian influence, reports Foreign Policy. A shift could see America play a more prominent role in the Caucuses and project a more powerful image of the Trump administration on the world stage.
Image courtesy of Getty Images.
