Why Ukraine Cannot Afford a 38th Parallel

Neve Walker

Staff Writer

The call for the end of the Russo-Ukraine war usually includes Ukraine making land concessions, yet this call misunderstands history, IR theory, and Moscow’s grander strategic visions. While concessions may pause fighting temporarily, they rarely secure lasting stability when the aggressor is committed to expansions. Russia’s motivations for launching the war in Ukraine stem from ideological and imperial ambitions. At its core, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to reassert Russian dominance over the post-Soviet arena and prevent Ukraine, which historically was a part of the USSR, from integrating with Western institutions like NATO and the European Union, according to the Council of Foreign Affairs.  Putin does not view Ukraine as its own sovereign state, but an inseparable part of Russian history and its future, according to LSE Public Policy Review . A Western-leaning Ukraine threatens Putin’s vision of a monopolar world where Russia triumphs. The war is less about security concerns and more about fulfilling Russia’s broader imperial project of reclaiming power and rewriting the post-Cold War order. 

The Korean War illustrates the reason why Ukraine cannot concede land. After World War II ended, the Allies drew a line across Korea to manage the Japanese surrender. North of the 38th Parallel was occupied by the Soviets and south was designated the Republic of Korea. Despite their promise of free elections and eventual unification, Stalin backed Kim Il-Sung’s dictatorship and prepared for a ground invasion, disregarding the agreement. By 1950, North Korean and Soviet forces stormed past the 38th parallel in a bid to unify the peninsula by force, according to the Office of the Historian. It became clear that Moscow’s word is untrustworthy, and territorial concessions breed future conflict rather than resolving it. 

The same principle should be applied to the Russo-Ukraine conflict. For Russia, the war is not about security guarantees or protecting Russian speakers, it is about imperial ambition. Putin has repeatedly invoked the idea of a Russian world, a sphere of dominance stretching across the former Soviet Union. Crimea in 2014 was not enough, neither was the seizure of parts of the Donbas. With each concession that has been made has emboldened Moscow to demand more. If Ukraine surrenders land now, it will mark the beginning of another cycle of Russian imperialism and renewed aggression, as predicted to the University of Oxford.

Along with this, rewarding territorial conquest undermines the United Nations Charter and International Law . It sends a message that might make right, going against international norms that protect smaller states from predation. Just like appeasing Nazi Germany in the 1930s encouraged further aggression, granting Russia permanent control over occupied Ukrainian land would validate its strategy of forceful revisionism. 

The Korean peninsula reminds us of what happens when aggressors are accommodated. Nearly seventy years later, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continues to threaten peace while the Republic of Korea lives under the shadow of war. Ukrainians, and the world, cannot afford to replicate this mistake. Ukraine’s sovereignty must be defended in full, not parceled out to give the illusion of peace. 

Russia’s vision for the future is clear, restore dominance over its neighbors, fracture the West, and toe the line of what it can get away with. The question now remains whether the international community will recognize the vision that Moscow has and intervene. 

Image courtesy of Getty Images.