FOCUS on Japanese General Election Results Spell Political Uncertainty

Japanese General Election Results Spell Political Uncertainty

Christian Montañez

Staff Writer

On October 1, Shigeru Ishiba, the former defense minister of long-time Japanese leader Shinzo Abe, was elected by the Japanese parliament to replace Fumio Kishida as the prime minister, states NPR. In the week leading up to Ishiba’s appointment, he was selected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which effectively cleared the way for him as the LDP holds the majority in parliament and has ruled Japan almost every year post-World War II. Furthermore, the LDP held a 279-seat majority coming into the beginning of Prime Minister Ishiba’s term according to BBC. With such historical support, one would think that the LDP would dominate any election; however, recent political developments have proved to weaken the party.

When examining why the LDP is facing increased scrutiny and public pressure, one must turn their attention to a major corruption scandal that rattled the party in 2023. According to CNN, Tokyo investigators discovered that the key factions within the LDP, the Abe and Nikai groups, had failed to declare millions of dollars in fundraising, breaching laws on political funding. These misreported funds were then used to allegedly provide kickbacks to lawmakers, creating a cycle of corruption and misuse of public funds. This scandal destroyed the reputation of former Prime Minister Kishida, who despite replacing four ministers in the aftermath was forced to not seek reelection, as his approval rating plummeted to 23 percent. Even with the replacement of Kishida with Ishiba, the October election proved to be costly for the LDP.

On October 27, Japan held a parliamentary general election called by Prime Minister Ishiba with hopes to lock down support for the start of his term. Despite hopes for a good turnout and continued political stability, the opposite occurred. As reported by Al Jazeera, The LDP shrunk to 209 seats while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), rose from 98 to 143 representatives. More importantly, a number of coalition leaders lost their district seats, including former cabinet members and the leader of the junior party, Keiichi Ishii. This dramatic shift caused the LDP to lose their majority within the lower house, signaling a potential trend towards political insecurity for the long-term leaders of Japanese government. 

If the ruling party cannot keep a majority over parliament, it loses the ability to unilaterally impose its will over policymaking, leading to increased cooperation and political roadblocks. In the wake of the LDP’s losses, this is the potential situation that Japan now faces. As told by The Associated Press, Ishiba has stated that the LDP is willing to cooperate with any opposition group that is willing to work towards the benefit of the public, with potential allies including the Japanese Innovation Party and the Democratic Party of the People. With the emerging need for more cooperation, Japan could see the interests of more parties enter policy deliberation which could create opportunities for reforms not possible before. 

Although the general election primarily concerns domestic Japanese politics, it certainly has international consequences as well. The position of prime minister is elected by members of the Japanese parliament, and as reported by Reuters, a special parliamentary session will be held on November 11 to determine the next Japanese prime minister. With the loss of their majority, the LDP cannot guarantee the election of a candidate of their choice, which could lead to a rare shift in power dynamics within Japan if the CDP can rally a coalition behind its cause. Furthermore, the prime minister is the face of Japan, so if a new one is elected then countries must completely adapt their foreign policy based upon any changes implemented by the new minister. Ultimately, what appears to have been a mishap in domestic politics will have far-reaching impacts.

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