Tiptoeing a Fine Line: Will the Middle East Have Itself A Regional War?

Tiptoeing a Fine Line: Will the Middle East Have Itself A Regional War?

Gabriella Fernandez

Staff Writer

October 7 marks one year since the war between Israel and Hamas began. Reflecting on this year of conflict and looking at where the war stands now reveals that not much progress has truly been made in stopping this war. Recent events of Israel’s bombings in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza along with Iran’s retaliatory missile launches at Israel have worried many that this will become a full-blown Middle Eastern regional war. Some even argue that the conflict has already reached that threshold. An exact definition of a regional war in the Middle East is difficult to qualify as proxies and non-state groups complicate the landscape. However, what is known is that there is active conflict in Gaza and now Lebanon with the ground invasion that began October 1, explained by the BBC.

For the sake of argument, say that a regional war would qualify when more actors become involved in spreading the conflict to more countries. Right now, this would be a localized war involving three neighboring territories. The other aspects of this conflict resemble “hostilities” more than war due to missiles being exchanged between Israel and other actors. 

The issue now is that the Middle East faces an expansion of this war hinging on the escalatory hostilities between Israel and Iran. Israel has promised retaliation for the 180 missiles Iran fired at it on Tuesday, October 1, which will be a key moment in this war. This is not the first time Israel has been confronted with a decision on how to respond to an Iranian attack. Previously in April, the United States was able to convince the Israeli government to refrain from an escalatory response and keep the conflict contained. However, this time the US understands the urge to retaliate and is taking a different approach by reaffirming its full support of Israel and its right to retaliate as stated by Al-Jazeera. Without the U.S. working to deter Israel, it will react to Iran accordingly. The question now remains: will this be the tipping point for full-blown regional war or will the U.S. step in to deter Iran from challenging Israel again? 

The Associated Press reports that the U.S. is sending more troops into the region after these events, following the trending fear and concern from analysts and leaders alike that this war will become a greater regional conflict. The concern stems from the understanding that if Iran goes to war with Israel, the US will also be drawn in. If this happens, Iraqi groups have threatened U.S. bases as laid out by Arab Weekly. All parties involved are feeling the intensity level rising; however, I see this expansion to full-blown regional war only if Israel escalates enough with Iran. 

If tensions continue as they are and Iran is deterred following Israel’s retaliation, the conflict will not spread to a greater regional war. As Foreign Affairs wrote, the attacks have been enough to make a statement in solidarity with Palestine but not escalate to war, specifically referring to Hezbollah. This was written before Israel’s ground incursion began into Hezbollah territory this week, but the same analysis also applies to the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Syria who have been exchanging missiles with Israel now. 

If Israel can build deterrence against Iran, the conflict will not spread but will be sustained. The fighting and bombing have gone on for a year and no solutions are close to being reached pointing to the fact that the actors involved are in it for the long haul. These actors have too much pride, emotional stake, and hurt involved in this conflict to simply accept an end without victory or defeat. The parties involved are not getting stronger but weakening. Hamas has been greatly weakened as Greg Myre points out in an NPR interview, and Foreign Affairs outlines how Israel is facing challenges in sustaining their effort as well, especially with the war in Lebanon now. The fighting with Hezbollah will eventually draw to a conclusion rather than escalate given Hezbollah’s recent deterioration at the hands of the IDF. This does not lend well to an expanded war effort and all sides should see that one is inherently against either of their interests. 

This war has brought much death, animosity, and chaos to the Levant which was already experiencing all these things. What happens between Israel and Iran next holds the power to determine the trajectory for the end of this war. If Israel can successfully deter Iran, it bodes well to deter the rest of Iran’s proxies and allies. However, if escalation intensifies, the world must prepare for war in the Middle East.

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