Central Asia’s Limited Embrace of a New Afghanistan
By: Nikki Schuldt
The impacts of failed statehood in Afghanistan permeate throughout Central Asia and cannot be addressed by working solely within Afghanistan’s borders. It is widely accepted in post-conflict development literature that the impacts of a conflict reach beyond bordering states and negatively affect the entire region. Afghanistan holds a prime geopolitical position within Central Asia connecting it with South and East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Hence, a stable Afghanistan is critical for regional trade expansion. Regional post-conflict recovery must focus on increasing trade within and throughout the region to stabilize the Afghan economy and advance Central Asia’s economic prospects. China has invested largely in creating a stable economic corridor between itself and Central Asia. Central Asian states and China have strategic interests in Afghan stability, and to achieve this, investment in trade connectivity and regional economic dialogue are paramount. Creative investment strategies that avoid the legitimation of the Taliban government may allow for the improvement of civilian lives without sacrificing concerns over its human rights record. Therefore, investment and expansion of pre-existing regional trade connectivity in Central Asia will provide economic stability to Afghanistan and its neighbors without legitimizing the unwelcome Taliban government.
Afghanistan’s Role in Central Asian Trade Connectivity
To support Afghanistan, states must reckon with the reality of diplomatic relations with a Taliban-led government. Central Asian states have advocated for major powers to stop short of isolating Afghanistan from the international system, recognizing that further isolation of Afghanistan threatens their security. This has led to the expansion of regional cooperation, including the annual Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and conferences for heads of security. Russia has also coordinated regional reconstruction efforts for Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal through the Moscow Format for Consultation on Afghanistan. Additionally, a 2022 meeting of the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) resulted in the signing of the Tunxsi Initiative, which outlined economic commitments and aid packages from regional actors to Afghanistan. A priority for the region is connectivity and stable trade routes, as Afghanistan stands between its fellow landlocked northern neighbors and ports of Pakistan, the most viable maritime access that would allow for further trade outside the region. Investing in infrastructure such as highways that connect Afghanistan to bordering states will increase trade prospects for the entirety of Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
Prior to the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the installation of a new Taliban government in 2021, regional connectivity and trade corridor development had been key areas of investment in Central Asia. Instability in Afghanistan resulted in pauses for many of these projects over concerns over further conflict would break out and put these projects at risk. Recently, investors have begun to renew projects in Afghanistan that were agreed to before the takeover of the Taliban. Since the most significant hurdle to redeveloping Afghanistan is the refusal to recognize or legitimize the Taliban government, renewing work on previously negotiated projects is critical, as improvements can be made without publicly making commitments with the regime. For example, in September 2024 the Taliban government resumed construction on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, which would provide Afghanistan with 16 percent of the gas output, employment opportunities, infrastructure improvements, and revenue from transit fees. Each partner state stands to gain from the completion of this project, and resuming work in Afghanistan will allow Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and India to see returns on their investments while supporting economic stability in their neighbor.
China’s Unique Interest in Afghanistan
China has played a significant role in the post-conflict economic recovery in Afghanistan. The two states share a border where the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan meets China’s Xinjiang region. China has a security interest in stabilizing and developing Afghanistan to quell the threat of terrorism from spreading at home. China recently announced that it plans to build a highway through Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor to shorten the transport time for the trade of rare earth minerals. Under the BRI, China has also begun to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan. This investment includes a highway between Peshawar and Kabul which would expand regional connectivity and would grant Afghanistan and others easy access to Pakistan’s Gwadar port. While the BRI has been criticized as a ploy to expand Chinese military and economic interests rather than an earnest investment in development, China is currently the only major power willing to engage the Taliban government and has a national interest in Central Asian connectivity and stability. Connecting Afghanistan to its neighbors will benefit the entire region, as the opening of new trade corridors via CPEC and other infrastructure will expand trade options for surrounding countries to import and export in new markets or create cheaper and more efficient trade routes for existing relationships.
Conclusion
Without formally recognizing its legitimacy, China and Central Asia are ready to cooperate with the Taliban government on joint projects and investments for the economic benefit of the entire region. The international community can assist with these efforts by investing in infrastructure that expands regional trade in Central Asia and opens pathways for goods and services to flow through Central Asia to the world. The resumption of pre-existing projects for trade connectivity through Afghanistan serves as the most pragmatic approach to short-term post-conflict reconstruction, as it avoids the technical legitimation of the Taliban government while still providing economic opportunities for civilians. Continued regional dialogues and support from Central, East, and South Asia will be critical for Afghans living under the harsh reality of Western sanctions.
Nikki Schuldt is Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations and a first-year graduate student. She specializes in post-conflict state reconstruction and foreign policy analysis.
