The MLB offseason has been uncharacteristically slow this winter, as most free agents have yet to find a team for next season. Most franchises have used the trade market to find upgrades for their team, acquiring players through prospects rather large contracts. With spring training approaching, here are the top five remaining free agents that could make major impacts.
J.D. Martinez
Photo via ChatSports
Age: 30
2017 Stats
BA: .303
HR: 45 (in only 432 AB)
RBI: 104
OBP: .376
WAR: 4.1
News on Martinez has been quiet for the past couple of weeks. The whole offseason has seemed to be a game of chicken between him and the Boston Red Sox, the only reported suitor. Rumors at the onset of the offseason had Boras looking for a $200 million+ contract offer for him, which was simply unrealistic given his age and the amount of suitors actually looking at him. While unquestionably a great hitter, he is limited in the field according to UZR and DRS ratings and will most likely need to be a full-time DH a couple years into his contract.
The Red Sox have reportedly offered him a 5-year contract and have shown a possible willingness to increase the deal to 6 years, as per Jon Heyman of FanRag. It seems that the Sox can afford to wait this one out and see Martinez and Boras lower their asking price because they’re the only team showing real interest. In my opinion, with the Red Sox’s re-signing of 1B Mitch Moreland, I feel Martinez is a forced fit now because of the looming contract of Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is now relegated to a 1B/DH role and if they bring Martinez into the fold, his role will be reduced even more to basically a $22 million platoon 1B with Martinez taking the DH spot. The only other team that could make sense be a return to the Diamondbacks, but they cannot afford him with the Zack Greinke clogging up their payroll.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox for 6 years/$155 million
Jake Arrieta
Photo via SportingNews
Age: 32
2017 Stats
W-L: 14-10
ERA: 3.53
IP: 168.1
GS: 30
WAR: 1.9
Ever since Jake Arrieta was traded from the Baltimore Orioles back in 2013, he has reached ace status. He has been extremely reliable and at times downright unhittable (in reference to the second half of 2015, ending the season with a 1.77 ERA and a Cy Young Award). The past two seasons he has noticeably regressed, yet he is still an ace in the eyes of many. What is scaring teams away is that extra year of age that separates him and Yu Darvish. One more year of their “prime” performance. Teams will be paying for more of a number 2-3 starter than the ace performance Arrieta has shown in the past. His peripherals are declining, but they are still better than many starters in the league and great compared to this lacking free agent class.
With that said, Arrieta has most of the same suitors as Darvish, including the Twins and Brewers. With teams favoring Darvish, whichever team signs the Japanese ace will leave the other with the most interest in Arrieta. A surprise player in the market for Arrieta has been the Philadelphia Phillies. They definitely have the payroll space for him, as their most expensive player is 1B Carlos Santana for $15 million this year and only 2 more guaranteed years after that. They are starting to turn the corner from a severely rebuilding team to one that could be competitive soon. Their top prospects are starting to emerge including OF/1B Rhys Hoskins (18 HR in only 170 ABs), SS J.P. Crawford, OF Nick Williams, and former top prospect Aaron Nola turned in a terrific year as the ace of the rotation. The future of their team is almost ready and they will need some serious reinforcements if everything breaks their way and Arrieta could be the stabilizing force they need in their rotation, even if he is not the ace he was in the past. Despite all that, the Twins are ready for contention now and as I said before they desperately need to make a big move for a starting pitcher, so I think they will shell out the necessary capital to sign Arrieta.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins for 5 years/$115 million
Eric Hosmer
Photo via The Spokesman Review
Age: 28
2017 Stats
BA: .318
HR: 25
RBI: 94
OBP: .385
WAR: 4.0
Incredibly durable and consistent, first baseman Eric Hosmer is poised to cash in this offseason. In the past 3 seasons, he has only missed 8 regular season games. In this age of frequent injuries, that is an impressive feat. The competition for Hosmer’s services seems to have never gotten past two teams, the Kansas City Royals and the San Diego Padres. Interestingly, the Padres’ Instagram account posted a picture of him and captioned it “Stay tuned.” However, the Padres have since made a statement saying that their accounts had been “inappropriately accessed”.
Believed to have similar deals of 7 years in pocket, Hosmer just has to decide where he wants to play. He could go back to Kansas City and continue to make a legacy as their franchise player, even though they are headed into a deconstruction period. The Royals have a huge hole at first base if he decides to spurn their offer and head to the west coast. The projected starting first baseman right now (after the trade of Brandon Moss) is Cheslor Cuthbert whose primary position is third base and has only played 7 games at first base since being called up from the minor leagues.
The Padres on the other hand already have a first baseman in star Wil Myers. However, he would be open to heading back to the outfield where he has played a majority of his career, presumably bumping left fielder Jose Pirela into a utility bench role. The Padres are in an interesting in-between phase, which they seem to have been stuck in for the past few years. They tried very hard to compete in prior years with additions like James Shields, Justin Upton, and Craig Kimbrel, but they all ended up being traded away after the team underperformed. So, signing Hosmer would be a long-term play for the Padres, giving them a consistent force to build around and pairing Myers with a lefty bat to protect him in the lineup.
Recently, there have been reports that Hosmer is looking for an 8 year deal, so whichever team is willing to offer that first will most likely land him. The Royals have reportedly offered 7 years/$147 million with the Padres offering 7 years/$140 million. With the Royals recent trade of Brandon Moss, that takes about $4 million off their books that they could increase to their offer to Hosmer. If it’s all about the money for him then the Royals could win this bidding war, but if it’s about the ability to compete in the near-term then the Padres would be the better fit because their top prospects are going to emerge soon while the Royals have no top 100 prospects. I predict that he’s going to go back to the team who drafted him and try to play the rest of his career with them, which is an extreme rarity nowadays.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals for 8 years/$176 million
Mike Moustakas
Photo via Chat Sports
Age: 29
2017 Stats
BA: .272
HR: 38
RBI: 85
OBP: .314
WAR: 1.8
Another product of the Royals, Mike Moustakas also had a fantastic 2017 campaign going into free agency. Hitting a career high 38 home runs due to an apparent swing change of trying to hit more fly balls really helps his case this year. Unfortunately for him, this slow market has not done him any favors. There have barely been any rumors of any teams interested in his services. He deserves a multi-year deal at a good AAV, but this year it’s going to be hard to find one.
Teams with openings at 3B include the Yankees, Royals, Braves. The Yankees seem determined to open the year with prospect Miguel Andujar at the hot corner after a strong showing in AAA last season. Also, they do not have much more funds to work with given that they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold to reset for next year’s free agent market. They also can leave 3B and 2B open for top prospect Gleyber Torres to eventually usurp either Andujar or Ronald Torreyes, with the latter being the more likely of the two.
The Royals could take him back, but it seems it would be dependant on whether or not they re-sign Hosmer. It also remains to be seen whether Moustakas would want to go back to playing for a losing team at this point. If Hosmer does not re-sign, the Royals could make a play for him to be their one franchise guy that they retain to keep fans somewhat interested.
The Braves make a lot of sense, but there have not been many connections to them this winter. They also have a top prospect, Austin Riley, projected to arrive either late this year or early next year so they may not want to block him with an established player deserving of an everyday role. Riley’s arrival will be right in line with when the Braves planned to be competitive again.
Prediction: Kansas City Royals for 2 years/32 million with a mutual option for $17 million
Alex Cobb
Photo via Underdog Sports
Age: 30
2017 Stats
W-L: 12-10
ERA: 3.66
IP: 179.1
SO: 128
GS: 29
WAR: 2.3
While Cobb may not be the “ace” some teams are looking to add to their roster, he still has a lot to contribute to a rotation. The Tampa product had a nice bounce-back season after being hampered with injuries for the previous two. A pitcher known for his control, he is receiving some interest from potential contenders with some holes in their pitching staff.
With the recent addition of Darvish, Chicago has taken themselves out of the race. The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers have been involved in seemingly every starting pitcher and can really cement their rotation by making a run at the righty. As I’ve pointed out before, both need to add a pitcher if they want to contend with the favorites to win their division, the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central and the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.
Since I have predicted that the Twins will sign Jake Arrieta, the next best starting pitcher in free agency after the recently-signed Darvish, I see Milwaukee as the best landing spot for Cobb. The Brewers will ultimately pull the trigger, perhaps relatively soon because Spring Training is upon us. Cobb would make a solid addition to a team with a re-vamped offense.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers for 4 years/70 million
Kevin Namendorf can be reached at kevin.namendorf@student.shu.edu or on Twitter @kevnames42.