Graduate students in Dr. Chris Young’s International Political Economy course were asked to write opinion pieces on hot topics in political economy. Here is a piece about Syria, and why it “(still) matters,” written by first year student Kate Campbell.
Why Syria (still) Matters
Kate Campbell
As the conflict in Syria wages on, many people have lost interest. Although they feel bad about the human rights violations and the loss of lives, Syria doesn’t matter much to the average American who views this as just another road block to peace in the Middle East; but it should matter. Not only is Syria important for the regional dynamics of the ever so fragile Middle East, it also has larger global implications for the economy, foreign policy, our troops, and, to quote Bush II, “the war on terror.”
What many Americans don’t realize is the strategic location of Syria. A quick glance at the map will show us that Syria is surrounded by Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey. The spillover effect of the conflict has very real implications for the stability of these countries. According to UN estimates, the refugee count has just hit the 1,000,000 mark, and it doesn’t seem to be stopping. In Turkey, the PKK (a Kurdish terror organization) is using the refugee population to infiltrate and execute terror attacks within the country. The refugee population also has the potential to incite radical behavior in relatively stable countries, like Jordan. To help combat these unwanted side-effects, the US has increased their foreign aid to many of these countries, spending more money that we cannot afford.
In addition to the terror acts in Turkey, Syria has become a safe haven for al Qaeda and other terror organizations. The shared border with Iraq has allowed al Qaeda to float between the two countries, causing more sectarian violence in Iraq. Of greater concern are the chemical weapons that reside in Syria. Not only are these weapons dangerous if Assad decides to use them against his own people, but also if they fall into the wrong hands. The US is working with Jordan to help secure these weapons, but who knows how long they will remain unused.
Another adverse effect of the Syrian Spill Over is the sectarian violence occurring in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is funneling weapons to Syrian rebels in Lebanon, and Iran is funneling weapons to Hezbollah and the Assad regime. This has caused armed conflict between the Sunnis and the Shi’as once again in Lebanon, and has the potential to become a proxy war of sorts between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
A larger effect of the Syrian conflict is the growing influence of Iran in the region. As the Arab states become weaker, Iran becomes stronger. Failing Syria provides them the opportunity to flow weapons to not only Assad, but also Hezbollah, and Hamas. This means trouble for Israel, who views Iran as an existential threat and is often attacked by both Hezbollah and Hamas.
We should not only focus on the negative effects of the conflict though. It’s also important to think about the potential good that could come from a resolution of the conflict, assuming the fall of Assad. The US and Europe has implemented sanctions against Syria for years. However, with a new regime, these sanctions could possibly be lifted, opening up more opportunities for international trade. Syria has oil, but most countries have sanctions against their oil production. Providing a new source for oil would lower the global strain on resources, even just a bit. Eventually Syria could engage in trade relations with Israel. The Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) that have been implemented in Jordan and Israel have served as a great boost to the Jordanian economy, allowing for companies like Victoria Secret, Calvin Klein, and Champion to build factories in these zones. Syria could open up these QIZs and allow for more companies popular in America to engage in production in Syria, potentially lowering their overall costs in the US. With a new regime in Syria, US entrepreneurs could look for new business ventures in the country. Although foreign investment would be high risk at the beginning, it could potentially have high returns for the investors. If successful this would stimulate the Syrian economy, by pouring more money into the country, and the US economy by providing US investors with more money to spend domestically.
Trade with Syria would not only be beneficial in terms of the economy, but also politically. Opening trade with Syria would cause them to be less reliant on Iran, again, weakening Iran’s power in the region. An open Syrian economy would likely promote more democratic and capitalist ideals in the country.
The US should be interested in Syria for another reason: the cost of war. The US does not want, and cannot afford, to get involved in a long protracted war again in the Middle East. The removal of Assad is not as simple as the removal of Khaddafi in Libya. Assad is sitting on a chemical weapons arsenal that can be used against the citizens, or fall into the wrong hands. Because of this and the major possibility for destabilization in the region, given the strategic location of Syria, the US will ultimately find itself involved. To avoid this, the US must engage in diplomacy with the rebels and try to unify the group and work to strengthen the opposition. Too much US involvement in regime transition will not be welcomed, thus they must put pressure on the neighboring Arab states to step up and help bring stability to the region. If war continues to wage, and chemical weapons are used, the US will feel pressure from the international community to take military action. Given the budgetary cuts to defense and the debt crisis, in addition to the potential of military action against North Korea, another war is the last thing on American’s agenda.
The world cannot stand to see another quagmire; another failed state. Diplomacy and open communication will go a lot further than unsuccessful sanctions and total inaction in the region. It will also prove more successful than eventual military intervention once the conflict is too far gone. We must urge our leaders to do the right thing. Syria matters.
