Grim Prospects for Lebanon

In his sixth public appearance since 2006, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke earlier last month to defend Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war. Nasrallah called on the Lebanese to recognize that he allegedly has no intention of promulgating a sectarian divide in the region, although protecting Shiite people and landmarks against Sunni militants was Hezbollah’s public stance when entering the conflict back in 2012. He also warned, with significant defensive posturing, of the ramifications of a third Lebanese war, focusing on Hezbollah’s deterrent power and the risks to air and sea travel should Hezbollah need to prepare for war in Lebanon.

Yet war in Lebanon seems nearly inevitable at this point.

Abu Mohamad al-Golani, leader of Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, responded within hours of Nasrallah’s speech with threats to Lebanon’s peace and security. The main media take-away from the interview with Golani noted, “The real war in Lebanon is yet to begin and what is coming is [so] bitter that Hassan Nasrallah will bite his fingers in remorse for what he has done to Sunnis”.

They appear to be making good on that promise. Jabhat al-Nusra still holds 27 Lebanese soldiers hostage, and Army Commander General Jean Kahwagi claims that both al-Nusra Front and IS are trying to gain access to the sea via Lebanon. Three of the soldiers held hostage have already been murdered in an attempt to show ruthless determination by the militant Sunni groups who hold them. Hezbollah has lost dozens of fighters to Jabhat al-Nusra’s attacks.

There is substantial fear that Lebanon’s current political instability will not be able to weather the attacks by Jabhat al-Nusra, and that the country risks “descent into chaos” as insurgent ideology becomes more appealing to Lebanese citizens who are witnessing an unbelievable number of refugees entering their borders where no current chief executive exists to take on mounting crises caused by the Syrian conflict. Lebanon has already seen violence erupt in Beirut, Tripoli, and within the Bekaa Valley, a region close to the Lebanon-Syria border and Lebanon’s most important agricultural region. An anonymous source described as an official within Lebanese security was quoted saying, “It’s hard to say it, but the fact is these events are far bigger than the Lebanese state’s capabilities. The army is paralyzed. Politicians are feeble. The state is anything but a state. [There has been] no president for almost five months. The Cabinet is in a state of care-taking and the parliament on an extended term. It’s a miracle life goes on.”

Al-Nusra Front’s presence in Lebanon can be traced to early 2013. A man using the name H.A. Dergham claimed responsibility for a Feburary 2013 attack on the Lebanese town of Ersal, proclaiming allegiance to the al-Nusra Front in Syria and declaring his intention to form a “branch” of the organization in Lebanon. The al-Nusra branch in Lebanon has allegedly declared that Hezbollah’s forces along the border were to be targeted, and they have engaged in a number of suicide attacks in Lebanon, including car bombings in Beirut. Lebanon has been experiencing increasing levels of violence since Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict, and the al-Nusra Front is largely responsible for them.

Hezbollah sees itself as the protector and savior of Lebanon, but already up to 5,000 Lebanese Sunnis have crossed the border, taken up weapons, and joined IS or al-Nusra groups in Syria. Hezbollah has failed to deal with the million refugees from Syria currently living in Lebanon, draining it of resources and jobs. There lacks any stable government authority to address any of the problems, and despite Hassan Nasrallah’s claims that Hezbollah would be prepared should Israel decide to invade within the next few weeks, they are remarkably stretched thin by their involvement with Syria. They have 5-7,000 troops in Syria, thousands manning the strongholds along the border, and very few left to address the strife back in Lebanon. Lebanese Christians are taking up arms and fortifying their homes while Lebanese Sunnis are defecting. Lebanese Shiites remain angry that Hezbollah got Lebanon so deeply entrenched in the Syrian conflict in the first place. Hezbollah may now lack the popular support to remain the “savior” of Lebanon, but what does that mean once war breaks out, alongside internal turmoil and increased Sunni militant attacks? The people are turning against Hezbollah, but in that case, there remains few, if any, options left to organize for war.

By Sarah Ireland

Sarah Ireland is an Associate Editor for the Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations. She is currently pursuing her M.A. in Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University, where she is specializing in Foreign Policy Analysis and the Middle East.​

Featured Image Source

Share

2 thoughts on “Grim Prospects for Lebanon

  • December 3, 2014 at 7:31 pm
    Permalink

    Please get your facts right. You sound like every other anti-shiite that wants to give an opinion on whats going on in lebanon. In reality have you been there to be able to make comments on the situation or you just read joe shmos version of whats happening? The hezb has more support then they have ever had not only amongst other shiiets but christians and druze as well. The IS cleary wants to include lebanon in its land grab and Nasrallah said that from the begining, yes the hezb obviously wants to protect its own people but thier efforts are not limited to that. They liberated countless christian towns and who else other then them and iran are supporting the mainly sunni palestinians? Whos stopping rigged cars from entering lebanon? Who killed their top bomb makers? Im tired of reading all these bs articles of how hezb dragged lebanon into the war. If they hadnt gone into syria the war wouldve already been in lebanon by now. Nusra front and IS both stated that lebanon was going to be one of their plans. Learn about religion and see the hate these sunnis have for shias. Did u know in mecca the shias get hit with sticks for not praying the sunni way, theyre not allowed to have government jobs and when they speak up or protest about inequality they killed or put in jail for an insane amount if time. Their leaders are real dictators that noboy seems to care about what they do to their people because they serve western interest. And through all this the media makes the shias look like they want to cause secterian strife. Please state that what your posting is simply your opinion because theres a lot of mislead people that will think what your saying is fact. Its articles like this one that cause more division amongst people, learn history from reliable sources and post informitive stuff instead of stuff thats going to add fuel to the fire. Have a nice day

    Reply
  • January 24, 2015 at 9:42 am
    Permalink

    I apologize that you feel that my sources were “unreliable” and that I failed to post “informitive stuff.” I do please ask that you use spell check and explicitly reference the material when commenting, it would make it easier to try to understand your argument.

    This was not intended to be anti-Shia, nor do I believe it comes off that way. This is merely an analysis of the situation based on the available information at the time. I strongly encourage you to read the sources referenced. If there is anywhere I explicitly failed to “get my facts right,” please let me know and I will make such adjustments. I find Hezbollah a particularly interesting organization, and I don’t believe I inserted my opinion into this piece, as I am fairly certain I don’t have one.

    “Its articles like this one that cause more division amongst people, learn history from reliable sources and post informitive stuff instead of stuff thats going to add fuel to the fire,” is a particularly incendiary statement in and of itself, and if you do not agree with other people’s analysis, I suggest you be more explicit in the future with where your disagreements lie. It is impossible to engage in intelligent discourse if your solution to your state of disagreement is to tell the author to go “learn history,”if you fail to elaborate on how I am contributing to sectarian sentiment, and won’t offer an example of “informitive stuff.”

    Thank you.

    Reply

Leave a Reply to Sarah Ireland Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *