2024 MLB Season Playoff Outlook
Austin Ruzbarsky
Staff Writer
The regular season in Major League Baseball is coming to an end, and several playoff berths are still up for grabs. In certain sections of the Major League Baseball standings, separation is difficult to find. This week’s games between the Kansas City Royals three-way the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians will increase attention on the three-way race in the American Central. Rather than using tiebreaker games, all playoff tiebreakers have been decided mathematically since 2022. This implies that the head-to-head record between those teams during the season will determine the winner of ties for division titles, postseason berths, and seeding, with additional tiebreakers available if necessary.
Baltimore would have the tiebreaker advantage over New York if the Orioles won one of the final three games against the Yankees and both clubs finished the season with the same record. The tiebreaker would be based on the inter-division record if the Orioles lost the final series (Sept. 27–29) to the Twins and finished the season with the same record as Minnesota. The Royals and Yankees would defeat the Guardians, even though they have significant tiebreakers over the Orioles and Twins. Although Cleveland is now ahead of the Astros by 6 1/2 games for the second AL seed, it would still need to win the tiebreaker if it were to sweep the final series. The tiebreaker would be determined by the inter-division record if the Guardians win two out of three. With a 3.5 game advantage over the Mariners, the Astros would need to sweep Seattle in their final series between the two clubs from September 23–25 to win the tiebreaker should the two teams finish the regular season with identical records.
The Royals’ victory over the Guardians in the season series was likely their most significant tiebreaker. Kansas City would win the division if the two teams tied at the end of the season. With a tiebreaker advantage over the Royals, the Twins may be able to secure a divisional or Wild Card spot, but Minnesota lost the tiebreaker because they lost the season series against the Guardians. In tiebreakers involving teams in the Wild Card race, Detroit is in a respectable position, holding an advantage over both Boston and Seattle. But the Twins, who currently own the third and last Wild Card spot, defeated the Tigers in the season series.
The Red Sox have some ground to make up and only have two meaningful tiebreaker advantages, but they are still very much in the running for a postseason berth. To win the tiebreaker, they must sweep the Twins in their series from September 20–22. If they win two of the three games, the tiebreaker will be decided by the record. With one game remaining in their three-game series against the Brewers, the Phillies can secure their crucial tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers. The Brewers are going to give up their tiebreaker advantage against the Dodgers and the Phillies should they lose any of their three games this month, but they still have a chance to secure one of the top two NL seeds. The Phillies would have the upper hand if both teams finished the season with the same record because the Dodgers have a significant advantage over the Brewers but not against them.
The D-backs’ greatest tiebreaker matchup will be with the Padres, and it will be decided during their season-ending series. Although San Diego has significant tiebreaker advantages over three teams, its largest advantage given how closely the two teams are separated in the standings will probably come against the D-backs. These teams conclude the season with a three-game series in Arizona from September 27–29. Lastly, The Mets are still very much in the running for the postseason and have a significant tiebreaker advantage over two other teams that are vying for a Wild Card spot. The outcome of the Mets and Braves’ remaining series later this month could determine who advances to the playoffs, as they are currently tied for the third Wild Card spot. Atlanta trails the Mets by one game in the Wild Card race, so the matchup against them is the most important one to watch. The winner of the tiebreaker will be decided in the final series between the two teams, which is tied for the season series and will take place in Atlanta from September 24–26.
Contact Austin at austin.ruzbarsky@student.shu.edu