Asif B. Farooq and Shannon E. Majowicz
This paper argues that emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remain a threat-focused security issue as the relative success of recent international responses do not fully reflect our current readiness for EID outbreaks. Existing pandemic response plans have been tested only for either virulent or highly transmissible diseases. Therefore, global health institutions have not yet been tested for the worst-case scenario: a disease with high virulence and transmissibility. We categorize EIDs into four quartiles according to their virulence and transmissibility, identify five relevant factors, and use recent EID outbreaks to develop inferences for response capacity to a possible outbreak of highly virulent and transmissible EIDs. We conclude there may be significant shortcomings in the existing pandemic response capacity to EIDs, which could lead to a public health crisis.