{"id":3352,"date":"2018-06-11T18:08:52","date_gmt":"2018-06-11T22:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/?p=3352"},"modified":"2018-06-19T16:17:42","modified_gmt":"2018-06-19T20:17:42","slug":"trumps-plan-b-with-north-korea-already-in-the-bag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/2018\/06\/11\/trumps-plan-b-with-north-korea-already-in-the-bag\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Plan B with North Korea: Already in the Bag"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center\">Hugh Dugan*<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">9 June 2018<\/p>\n<p>What if talks with North Korea don\u2019t start as planned?\u00a0 What\u2019s the United States\u2019 fallback?\u00a0 Surprisingly, a Plan B of merely \u201cgetting to know you\u201d has much to offer, mostly because it\u2019s already in the bag.<\/p>\n<p>Even if the summit were just a photo op, the United States is already achieving a great deal.\u00a0 It is in a strong position either way.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has gone long on this gamble &#8211; while also shorting it. He\u2019s flying to Singapore &#8211; yet willing to walk away.\u00a0 And he can do so because, as a good dealmaker, he has created a \u201ctake it or leave it\u201d scenario.\u00a0 It\u2019s an existential opportunity for Kim, but, either way, the United States can manage.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is moving the geo-political market, a feat rarely done by one player on the world stage.\u00a0 His cult of personality has gone global, whereby North Korean Kim Jong-un\u2019s ultimately remains peninsular.<\/p>\n<p>So, Trump has positioned himself in charge of making things happen for North Korea &#8211;\u00a0 but only if he decides that Kim\u2019s behavior merits it.<\/p>\n<p>For all intents and purposes, the summit has already started.\u00a0 Even if there\u2019s a walk away from Singapore, there&#8217;s no going back to 2017.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because the US has already bested Kim in several ways.<\/p>\n<p>For example, our president has masterfully framed and reframed expectations.\u00a0 He successfully rebranded his \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d as \u201cmaximum pressure <em>for now<\/em>\u201d, implying that the talks will have consequences, good or bad \u2013 it\u2019s up to Kim.<\/p>\n<p>And all the while Trump has been artfully adding sweeteners &#8211; enlarging the pot &#8211; at no cost to the US.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For example, there\u2019s his \u201ctwo-for-the-price-of-one\u201d possible visit to Washington and perhaps Mar Lago.\u00a0 Maybe a drop by from Dennis Rodman?<\/li>\n<li>Trump continues the sell.\u00a0 For instance, what about a peace treaty to end the Korean War?\u00a0Could that tempt Kim to contemplate the deal of the century: normalizing US \u2013 North Korean relations?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this way, Trump has been messaging his capacity for commuting Kim\u2019s geo-political solitary confinement.\u00a0 Perhaps it\u2019s no coincidence that his presidential pardons this past week hint at what\u2019s possible here \u2013 if Kim comes clean.<\/p>\n<p>North Korea&#8217;s co-conspirators Iran, Syria, and the like must be watching and second-guessing Kim&#8217;s reliability, worried that any amnesty granted him would expose lots of dirty business coming out of those places and threaten their many schemes.\u00a0 Again, Advantage: US.<\/p>\n<p>At Singapore, other spectators in the stands will squelch any sneezes or coughs lest they be misinterpreted as unwelcome interference.\u00a0 Notably, there will be a \u201cwait and see\u201d hush from the China and Russia seats.\u00a0 This circumstance has secured their good behavior for now, and tellingly reveals them as spectators &#8211; not players &#8211; of this mega-match.<\/p>\n<p>Further, the world will keep score depending more on the US referees than the North Korean, providing another subtle US advantage for the post-game analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Geo-strategically, this Singapore sling might be fine without all the alcohol.\u00a0 It merely needs enough to prove the United States as a reliable guarantor of allies\u2019 security in a relentless world.\u00a0 By merely walking into that lion\u2019s den Trump does so.\u00a0 If he can get more while there, he will.<\/p>\n<p>This brings us back to considering other US takeaways already earned.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kim&#8217;s new openness these past months has surrendered a treasure trove of human intelligence on the regime denied us for decades.<\/li>\n<li>For Kim, mere contact with the sworn \u201cenemy\u201d means slippage from his vice-like control over his gulag.\u00a0 To keep his myth alive as defender to the death, Kim would have to control all visuals among North Koreans to show that he has a gun to Trump\u2019s head &#8211; not possible in this internet world.\u00a0 (Back home for Trump, taking tea with the devil comes as no surprise, and it is in fact relished &#8211; by his critics and supporters alike.)<\/li>\n<li>It doesn\u2019t hurt US security interests that Trump will be registering on the geo-political Richter scale in China\u2019s corner of the world, tremoring its ambitions of global hegemony.\u00a0 This provides momentum to pushback against Chinese regional ambitions by both friends and foes.<\/li>\n<li>Furthermore, Singapore could serve to extend the Trump brand into further political and international markets.\u00a0 For instance, last week Trump leveraged this summitry moment by hinting to Putin a possible Washington rendezvous \u2013 a subtle condition to ensures his obedience during Singapore.<\/li>\n<li>This exercise will wander into North Korea&#8217;s deeper social psychology.\u00a0 Kim knows that keeping his country all bottled-up is not a sustainable path for the regime&#8217;s security, which is his top priority.\u00a0 Talk sessions have been long overdue: to address ultimately North Korea&#8217;s decades-old chronic abuses of its own people and its sociopathy abroad.\u00a0 Nuclear capacity, whether solved or not this week, is merely the shiny object that attracted the world\u2019s attention to meet now, something that the inhumane plight of 25 million suffering souls could not do for 70 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, most of us are setting our VCRs for June 12 to get a view of the red carpet.\u00a0 For months the stars have been offstage, colliding and aligning.\u00a0 Now come the teases of trophy talk and a securely-delivered oversized envelop.\u00a0 Soon the curtain will rise and out will come those unpredictable small white pieces of paper with things not scripted on the teleprompter.<\/p>\n<p>But who decides if and when to cue the walk-off music?\u00a0 Just make sure it\u2019s \u201cGetting to Know You\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3353\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3353\" style=\"width: 222px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3353\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/files\/2018\/06\/Unknown.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"222\" height=\"222\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3353\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">*Hugh Dugan is Visiting Scholar at Seton Hall University\u2019s School of Diplomacy and was a US diplomat and senior diplomatic adviser to eleven ambassadors to the United Nations from 1989 to 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hugh Dugan* 9 June 2018 What if talks with North Korea don\u2019t start as planned?\u00a0 What\u2019s the United States\u2019 fallback?\u00a0 Surprisingly, a Plan B of&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/2018\/06\/11\/trumps-plan-b-with-north-korea-already-in-the-bag\/\">Continue Reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Trump\u2019s Plan B with North Korea: Already in the Bag<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":4175,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,315],"tags":[279,294,285],"class_list":["post-3352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogposts","category-hugh-dugan","tag-shu_un_studies","tag-profhughdugan","tag-shudiplomacy","entry"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4175"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3352"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3355,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3352\/revisions\/3355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/unstudies\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}