{"id":6975,"date":"2018-09-30T08:00:16","date_gmt":"2018-09-30T12:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thediplomaticenvoy.com\/?p=6975"},"modified":"2021-01-22T15:32:19","modified_gmt":"2021-01-22T20:32:19","slug":"irans-greatest-threat-is-internal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/2018\/09\/30\/irans-greatest-threat-is-internal\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite Foreign Threats of Regime Change, Domestic Unrest Remains Iran’s Greatest Adversity"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Felipe Bueno
\n<\/strong>Editor-in-Chief<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Trump administration has no qualms expressing its feelings towards Iran\u2019s leadership. From threatening<\/a> \u201cconsequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered,\u201d to claiming<\/a> that a regime change will occur in the near future, to blaming Iran<\/a> for the Middle East\u2019s problems, the U.S. is remarkably candid.<\/p>\n

U.S. policy towards Tehran is by no means an anomaly. Iran is currently entangled in a proxy war<\/a> with Saudi Arabia, with both sides slaughtering each other\u2019s troops in Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia\u2019s Eastern Shiite Province. Closer to home, Saudi Arabia funds<\/a> an Iranian separatist group, the century-old Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), bent on creating discord inside of Iran.<\/p>\n

With a new round of sanctions<\/a> right around the corner, many key U.S. allies have also turned their back on the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n

Japan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, and European countries all plan to reduce imports from Iran amidst sanctions targeting the country\u2019s oil industry. Bpifrance, a French state-owned bank, recently backpedaled<\/a> its initiative to help French companies that wished to trade with Iran; a move that contradicts France\u2019s desire to uphold the requirements set out in the Nuclear Deal.<\/p>\n

Amidst these external pressures, Iran turned to Russia and China, who also declined to assist. Russia is more than happy to fill Iran\u2019s gap in the oil market, meanwhile China is equally preoccupied with its own series of U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s biggest threat however, burns inside its very own boarders. Iran\u2019s oil industry, despite facing sanctions from abroad, is plagued<\/a> internally by unrest in the country\u2019s oil-producing province. Khuzestan, located on the country\u2019s southwest border with Iraq, holds 70 percent of Tehran\u2019s oil reserves.<\/p>\n

Despite possessing the country\u2019s largest revenue source, the region is poor and neglected. Khuzestan is home to Iran\u2019s Muslim-minority, a perfect breeding ground for ethnic tensions. Iranian Arabs say they are kept out of local legislature while the country\u2019s Persian majority reaps the benefit of its oil exports.<\/p>\n

The economic problems Iran faces disproportionately hurt<\/a> Khuzestan. The region\u2019s unemployment rate is 14.5 percent, higher than the national rate of 11.8 percent. Water and electricity shortages, along with a severe drought, have only compounded Muslim plight.<\/p>\n

Subjecting an ethnic minority to poverty while denying them the benefits of the region\u2019s economic contribution has led to the increasing popularity of the MEK. Recently, gunmen associated with the MEK opened fire<\/a> at a military parade in the capital of the Khuzestan province. The MEK gunmen killed<\/a> at least 24 people, including a 4-year-old boy, and wounded nearly 70.<\/p>\n

While Iran has attempted to divert the blame to the United States and Saudi Arabia, citing the former\u2019s support of the MEK, unrest throughout the country, caused by poor management of the banking system and the depreciation of the country\u2019s national currency, continues to spread.<\/p>\n

Following the closure<\/a> of numerous financial institutions in recent years, most notably the Caspian Finance and Credit Institution, Iranian citizens protested the government. The protests were directed at President Hassan Rouhani, who promised to revitalize the economy when he sought reelection in 2017, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country\u2019s supreme leader.<\/p>\n

Political corruption facilitated the failure of these financial institutions, which allowed well-connected elites to gamble with bank deposits and afforded them impunity while doing so. In a statement that only galvanized protesters further, the government deflected blame by claiming that victims should have been more careful with their money.<\/p>\n

The rial\u2019s depreciation only led to further unrest. Having lost 35 percent of its value earlier this year<\/a>, the rial plummeted again<\/a> earlier this month. Every time the rial faces severe depreciation Iranians default to the world\u2019s reserve currency: the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n

When Rouhani took office in 2013, the rial\u2019s going rate was 36,000 rials to the dollar. When the currency plummeted in early September, any currency exchange shops that were still willing to trade offered 150,000 rials to the dollar.<\/p>\n

Households everywhere felt the immediate impact of this depreciation as Iran faced a serious diaper shortage. Around 70 percent of the material for disposal diapers are imported. As the rial loses value, diapers becomes much more expensive to households.<\/p>\n

While the government has been able to unify the country using Persian nationalism in the past, the current unrest is unlike anything it has faced before. The outside pressures faced by Iran might prove too much to handle if domestic dissident groups continue to gain momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the government has been able to unify the country using Persian nationalism in the past, the current unrest in Iran is unlike anything it has faced before. The outside pressures it faces might prove too much to handle if domestic dissident groups continue to gain momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3078,"featured_media":6976,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1468,7,1258],"tags":[396,463,897,1099],"class_list":["post-6975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-september-2018","category-opinion","category-1258","tag-iran","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-donald-trump","tag-oil"],"yoast_head":"\nDespite Foreign Threats of Regime Change, Domestic Unrest Remains Iran's Greatest Adversity - The Diplomatic Envoy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/2018\/09\/30\/irans-greatest-threat-is-internal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Despite Foreign Threats of Regime Change, Domestic Unrest Remains Iran's Greatest Adversity - The Diplomatic Envoy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While the government has been able to unify the country using Persian nationalism in the past, the current unrest in Iran is unlike anything it has faced before. 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