{"id":11219,"date":"2021-11-30T22:01:52","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T03:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/?p=11219"},"modified":"2021-11-30T22:01:06","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T03:01:06","slug":"thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/2021\/11\/30\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Thucydides\u2019 Trap: A New Era of Great-Power Competition Between the United States and China"},"content":{"rendered":"

Drew Starbuck
\n<\/span><\/b>Staff Writer<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Inspired by\u00a0Thucydides\u2019\u00a0<\/span>History of the Peloponnesian War<\/span><\/i>,\u00a0political scientist Graham T. Allison coined the term \u201cThucydides\u2019 Trap\u201d in an article for the\u00a0<\/span>Financial Times\u00a0in 2012<\/span><\/a>. Thucydides\u2019 Trap posits that when a great power\u2019s hegemony is threatened by a rising power, there is a high likelihood of war between the two nations. This proposition is relevant when examining the relationship between the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. Allison coined this term precisely to characterize increasing U.S.-China tensions, worrying that it would eventually result in a war between the world\u2019s two greatest powers.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While\u00a0U.S.\u00a0President\u00a0Joe\u00a0Biden\u00a0has<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>promised to be the antithesis of his predecessor Donald Trump\u00a0on\u00a0many issues,\u00a0both agreed on\u00a0the need to confront China\u00a0on\u00a0security and\u00a0the economy\u00a0as\u00a0the PRC\u00a0rapidly climbs the economic ladder.\u00a0\u00a0President Biden, however, diverges from the previous administration\u2019s unilateral policies by adopting a multilateral approach\u00a0and\u00a0forging agreements with other\u00a0allied\u00a0nations in the Indo-Pacific regions\u00a0to confront China.\u00a0One example is AUKUS, a\u00a0newly\u00a0formed\u00a0trilateral security\u00a0agreement\u00a0between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. This pact will allow Australia to\u00a0<\/span>build nuclear-powered submarines<\/span><\/a>\u00a0for the\u00a0first-time\u00a0using technology provided by the\u00a0U.S. and the UK.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AUKUS\u00a0is one of the\u00a0most significant\u00a0defense pacts\u00a0in decades,\u00a0as\u00a0it\u00a0not only provides nuclear technology to Australia but also extends into other fields such as\u00a0artificial intelligence\u00a0and\u00a0emerging\u00a0technologies. This diplomatic move\u00a0was identified as a key move to counter\u00a0growing\u00a0Chinese aggression\u00a0and to shore up defenses\u00a0with\u00a0a key American ally in the\u00a0Indo-Pacific. Chinese officials quickly decried\u00a0the agreement as<\/span>\u00a0“extremely irresponsible.”\u00a0<\/span>Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao\u00a0Lijian<\/span><\/a>\u00a0said the agreement\u00a0\u201cseriously undermines regional peace and stability and intensifies the arms race.\u201d The pact will focus on\u00a0building\u00a0military capability,\u00a0as\u00a0<\/span>covered by\u00a0the\u00a0separate\u00a0Five Eyes\u00a0intelligence-sharing\u00a0arrangement<\/span><\/a>. This marks a turning point for Australia which has become only the second nation besides the UK with access to U.S. submarine technology.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another\u00a0creation of Biden\u2019s multilateralism is the\u00a0Quadrilateral\u00a0Security Dialogue between the United States, Australia, India, and Japan,\u00a0dubbed\u00a0the\u00a0QUAD.\u00a0The\u00a0<\/span>Council on Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a>\u00a0explains that\u00a0maritime cooperation began among these nations after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004.\u00a0Since then,\u00a0there have\u00a0been\u00a0ups and downs\u00a0in the cooperation among these nations\u00a0over\u00a0several economic, health, and security issues, with nations such as Australia reluctant to risk\u00a0confrontation with\u00a0China. However, by 2021,\u00a0the leaders of\u00a0the\u00a0four nations have aligned in defense against\u00a0<\/span>China\u2019s increasingly aggressive behavior<\/span><\/a> and territorial claims in the South and East China seas. These concerns are highlighted by the increased importance of the Indo-Pacific region, which includes several oceans and nations on different continents and all the maritime trade that flows through the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

An estimated\u00a0<\/span>$1.9 trillion worth of U.S. trade<\/span><\/a> by GDP flows through the region, along with 38 percent of global imports and 42 percent of the world\u2019s exports. The QUAD nations began strengthening mutual ties during the Trump administration, which continue to grow under the Biden administration. Despite growing fear of China\u2019s actions, some policymakers within the QUAD member nations see no benefit of using the alliance\u2014which some call an \u201cAsian NATO\u201d\u2014to contain the Chinese Communist Party. Yet, the QUAD represents more of an effort in cooperation amongst the democracies in the region on shared issues where they can counter China\u2019s regional influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Forging alliances is particularly important given China\u2019s open aggression against Taiwan and amid the mainland\u2019s clear signals that it desires reunification with the island. Taiwanese defense minister, former general Chiu Kuo-cheng, recently predicted to the national legislature of Taiwan that the mainland would launch a full-scale <\/span>invasion of Taiwan by 2025<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0China\u2019s\u00a0People\u2019s Liberation Army has been conducting amphibious landing drills on their coastline near the Taiwan Strait in a seeming attempt at intimidation\u00a0by\u00a0naval\u00a0posturing.\u00a0Additionally, the Chinese government has sent close to\u00a0<\/span>150 military aircraft into Taiwan<\/span><\/a>\u2019s air defense zone<\/span>\u00a0in recent weeks.\u00a0Experts believe\u00a0that\u00a0conflict between\u00a0China\u00a0and the United States is likely to\u00a0result from\u00a0an attempted Chinese invasion of\u00a0Taiwan\u00a0to reunify it with the mainland, placing the island\u00a0at \u201cthe\u00a0<\/span>heart of deepening discord<\/span><\/a> and rivalry between the two superpowers.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Taiwan and China have a complex history\u00a0tied\u00a0together that started with the Chinese\u00a0Civil\u00a0War,\u00a0resulting\u00a0in the Communist Party and its followers led by Mao Zedong driving nationalists led by the Kuomintang\u00a0into exile\u00a0to\u00a0Taiwan.\u00a0The\u00a0Communist\u00a0Party\u00a0considers Taiwan to be a renegade province\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span>adheres to the \u201cOne China\u201d policy<\/span><\/a> in which it considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory as the only legitimate government of China with which it will eventually reunify. <\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. Air Force has conducted many wargames simulating\u00a0a\u00a0potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan\u00a0and what would happen if the United States came to the assistance of Taiwan.\u00a0The U.S.\u00a0<\/span>Department of Defense\u2019s\u00a0recent wargames<\/span><\/a> simulating a 2030 invasion using newly-developed weapons such as sixth-generation fighter jets, cargo munition planes, and sensor grid drones were able to repel the Chinese invasion with both sides avoiding massive losses. While this signals good news for the U.S. and Taiwan, it is clear that any conflict involving Taiwan and the two great powers would be devastating, especially if it escalated to a nuclear exchange. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, the intensifying tension between China and the United States has led to increased worry among international relations scholars and strategists who believe, like Allison, in the \u201cThucydides Trap.\u201d President Biden has acknowledged what most people have also come to realize: the world is entering a new era of great power competition and strengthening America\u2019s ties with its allies is key to competing in this new era.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thucydides\u2019 Trap posits that when a great power\u2019s hegemony is threatened by a rising power, there is a high likelihood of war between the two nations. This proposition is relevant when examining the relationship between the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. Allison coined this term precisely to characterize increasing U.S.-China tensions, worrying that it would eventually result in a war between the world\u2019s two greatest powers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5139,"featured_media":11216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2104,2116,384,386],"tags":[393,1012,1621,2227,2302],"class_list":["post-11219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2104","category-analysis","category-americas","category-asia","tag-china","tag-hegemon","tag-national-security","tag-global-economy","tag-power"],"yoast_head":"\nThucydides\u2019 Trap: A New Era of Great-Power Competition Between the United States and China - The Diplomatic Envoy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/2021\/11\/30\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Thucydides\u2019 Trap: A New Era of Great-Power Competition Between the United States and China - The Diplomatic Envoy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thucydides\u2019 Trap posits that when a great power\u2019s hegemony is threatened by a rising power, there is a high likelihood of war between the two nations. This proposition is relevant when examining the relationship between the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. Allison coined this term precisely to characterize increasing U.S.-China tensions, worrying that it would eventually result in a war between the world\u2019s two greatest powers.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/2021\/11\/30\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Diplomatic Envoy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-12-01T03:01:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/thediplomaticenvoy\/files\/2021\/11\/Starbuck-Thucydides-Trap-A-New-Era-of-Great-Power-Competition-Between-the-United-States-and-China-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1696\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Drew Starbuck\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Drew Starbuck\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Drew Starbuck\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6d60ef6f4aa8489261183d76481d96ec\"},\"headline\":\"Thucydides\u2019 Trap: A New Era of Great-Power Competition Between the United States and China\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-01T03:01:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":993,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/files\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/Starbuck-Thucydides-Trap-A-New-Era-of-Great-Power-Competition-Between-the-United-States-and-China-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"Hegemon\",\"National Security\",\"Global Economy\",\"Power\"],\"articleSection\":[\"2021\",\"Analysis\",\"Americas\",\"Asia\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.shu.edu\\\/thediplomaticenvoy\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/30\\\/thucydides-trap-a-new-era-of-great-power-competition-between-the-united-states-and-china\\\/\",\"name\":\"Thucydides\u2019 Trap: A New Era of Great-Power Competition Between the United States and China - 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This proposition is relevant when examining the relationship between the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. 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