{"id":4820,"date":"2019-03-09T18:00:33","date_gmt":"2019-03-09T23:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/diplomacy\/?p=4820"},"modified":"2019-03-09T15:38:09","modified_gmt":"2019-03-09T20:38:09","slug":"chinas-new-moves-offshore-balancing-or-space-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.shu.edu\/journalofdiplomacy\/2019\/03\/chinas-new-moves-offshore-balancing-or-space-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s New Moves: Offshore Balancing or Space Wars?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The science fiction novel Ghost Fleet<\/a> opens as China launches a surprise attack on the United States, beginning first in space and moving to Earth as the People\u2019s Liberation Army activates sleeper technology embedded in American military vehicles and munitions (which were, of course, built in China) and overruns Pearl Harbor.\u00a0 The book\u2019s stark picture of the risks of overreliance on technology in warfare earned it a place on the Army Chief of Staff\u2019s Professional Reading List<\/a> in 2017.\u00a0 From a security perspective, the book demonstrates how electronic warfare can move beyond PLA Unit 61398<\/a> and \u201ctroll factories,\u201d bleeding into conventional land, air, and space conflict, decisively turning a battle or war.<\/p>\n

Eight years before Ghost Fleet<\/u> was published, Christopher Layne recommended<\/a> that rather than continuing a grand strategy based on a preponderance of power, the US should move towards a policy to balance powers, disengaging from overseas obligations in order to protect national security.\u00a0 He argued this would cost less, risk less, and therefore allow the country to focus on domestic issues.<\/p>\n

Last month, the Defense Intelligence Agency issued a report<\/a> on Chinese military power, noting that China sees itself as an ascendant power and is modernizing its military to secure national security interests both within and beyond its borders.\u00a0 China announced details of a plan to restructure its military<\/a>, halving the number of ground troops in the People\u2019s Liberation Army while greatly increasing naval, air, and space power.\u00a0 Recent crackdowns on Chinese Christians<\/a>, Muslims<\/a>, and political groups<\/a> show the government is indeed working to maintain domestic stability.<\/p>\n

A second DIA report<\/a> notes that Chinese operations to clean up space debris could easily be a cover for operations against US satellites, eerily echoing Ghost Fleet<\/u>\u2019s catastrophic first chapter.<\/p>\n

Is China attempting an offshore balancing strategy or getting ready for a swing at the king?\u00a0 To clarify: is China sacrificing its ability to influence areas outside its borders in order to shore up control within, or is China signaling that the next war begins in space? \u00a0Perhaps a better set of questions might be: which would be better for the US, and how can the US encourage it?<\/p>\n

Would the US benefit from China\u2019s offshore balancing?\u00a0 This strategy would mean abandoning dreams of Chinese hegemony, which the US would like very much indeed, thank you.\u00a0 China has growing interest in military footholds in the Philippines<\/a> and elsewhere in the South China Sea<\/a>, and recently set up a new military base<\/a> in Africa to cement its presence on the other side of the world.\u00a0 US naval movements in the South China Sea are already generating friction<\/a> with China, so Chinese offshore balancing may be irrelevant if American strategic interests continue to overlap with theirs.<\/p>\n

How would the US fare in the world\u2019s first Space War?\u00a0 Currently the US has over 800<\/a> satellites in orbit.\u00a0 The satellites collect data for everything from defense intelligence, to civilian communications, to weather.\u00a0 America only launched its first jam-resistant military satellite<\/a> in October.\u00a0 The Pentagon\u2019s \u201cSpace Force<\/a>\u201d and space-based missile defense still have yet to get off the ground (pun intended), so US ability to respond to or prevent an attack on satellites is disproportionally slim compared to the damage and disruption such an attack would produce.\u00a0 I cannot begin to calculate the economic impact alone from an attack on communications.\u00a0 The logistics of force projection precludes China from an invasion on mainland America, but Space War (perhaps paired with a cyber-attack on terrestrial IT infrastructure) could easily knock the US off its great power perch.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think China\u2019s recent moves indicate an attempt at balancing, rather than preparation for a decisive strike against the US.\u00a0 I believe they will focus on controlling their population over actively shaping the world in their image.\u00a0 The US is China\u2019s biggest trading partner<\/a>, and a debilitating attack on the American economy would not be in China\u2019s interests, as unemployment increases<\/a> domestic instability.\u00a0 China\u2019s gender imbalance<\/a> will further challenge the country\u2019s ability to maintain domestic control, given the link<\/a> between an abundance of young men and political instability.\u00a0 The biggest threats to China\u2019s government lie inside their borders.<\/p>\n

Ghost Fleet<\/u> ends with scrappy Americans winning the war by using analogue technology, and I think the message of unconquerable human ingenuity is worth promoting again.\u00a0 As we brainstorm how to protect civil communications infrastructure and wait for Space Force to blast off, the US should emphasize diplomacy.\u00a0 Diplomacy can help both countries better understand the other\u2019s aims and fears, reducing the possibility of a looming security dilemma and other dangerous misunderstandings. \u00a0Additionally, as China increases internal pressure on its population, diplomacy can address inevitable human rights concerns.\u00a0 Diplomacy in concert with the rest of the world is the best way to engage with China going forward.<\/p>\n

Eleanor Baldenweck<\/a> is a graduate student at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall after eleven years of active-duty military service.\u00a0 She is particularly interested in international security and conflict management.\u00a0 She enjoys reading (and ranting about) the news.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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